Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-12-23 03:46

55%
Win Probability
+11.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-9.0 to +31.0]
2
Boom Potential
Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST
3
Bust Risk
Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%)

Start/Sit Decisions

: Start over Love OUT with concussion. Brissett has elite CIN matchup (51.5 game total, 5th-worst vs QB defense).
: Start over Irving is TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 RB defense). Hampton faces HOU #1 RB defense.
: Start over Spears coming off 21.5 pt Week 16 boom. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Hampton's HOU matchup is brutal.
: Start over JSN is SEA WR1 vs CAR. Week 16: 23.6 pts. Consistent target share.
: Start over Williams vs MIN (#1 worst WR defense, 25.2 PPG). Christmas Day shootout (48.5 total).
: Start over DEBATE RESULT: MHJ has 42.3% XGB boom (highest on roster) in 51.5 game total. McMillan has 48.8% bust probability. Championship week = ceiling play. MHJ 2, McMillan 2 vote, tiebreaker to ceiling.
: Start over Debate result: Chargers have 35.9% MC BOOM (vs Rams 21.7%), only 22.3% BUST (vs Rams 39.8%). Boom/bust ratio 1.6x is championship-optimal.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.322.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.715.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Tyjae Spears NO9.912.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.921.5BOOMMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN14.218.0BOOMMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.111.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. CIN13.012.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.410.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.46.0BUSTMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAC)
DROP: Jayden Reed (Love OUT tanks value)

Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers pr...

#2 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)
DROP: Jordan Love

If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.

#3 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
DROP: Rashee Rice (IR - useless)

Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels, Cooper Kupp

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Championship week matchup against #1 seed Kitty's Piggy Skins. Jordan Love (OUT) and Rashee Rice (IR) create lineup challenges, but Jacoby Brissett @ Cincinnati (51.5 game total) provides elite QB replacement. Jameson Williams faces the worst WR defense (MIN) on Christmas Day. Key FLEX debate between McMillan (safer floor) and MHJ (42.3% boom ceiling). Chargers D/ST boom/bust ratio (1.6x) makes them the optimal championship DST. Win probability: 55% with 10.5 point expected margin.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 22.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 13.0 8.0
Jameson Williams WR WR 14.2 18.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 21.5
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.1 11.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE 13.0 12.0
Jason Myers K K 8.4 10.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.4 6.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 9.2 6.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 8.9 6.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 9.8 8.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 16.2 ---
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.5 8.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 12.3 15.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 12.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 13.7 ---
0.0 Actual
130.5 LLM Total
122.0 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Dak Prescott QB QB 21.1 18.0
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 18.5
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 17.0
DeVonta Smith WR WR 12.5 12.0
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 14.0
Dallas Goedert TE TE 10.8 10.0
Quinshon Judkins RB RB/WR/TE 0.0 0.0
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 8.0
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST 8.9 8.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.9 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Darnell Mooney (bench) WR BE 5.9 ---
Deebo Samuel (bench) WR BE 12.8 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 18.7 ---
Tyler Warren (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
120.0 Opp LLM Total
114.6 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +10.5 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical pattern shows high ceiling). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (model underestimates). CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs (18.9 PPG). 51.5 game total is HIGHEST of the week. With MHJ and McMillan as weapons in shootout conditions, selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-29).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (over-predicts bust). TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 vs RB). Week 16: 7.1 pts underperformed but solid usage. Game total 46.5 supports scoring. Selecting MODERATE mode. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Week 16 BOOMED with 21.5 pts. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Haskins out elevated role. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 21.5 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust. SEA WR1 vs CAR (#11 vs WR). Week 16: 23.6 pts BOOM. Consistent target share. Selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 21.5 pts (within BOOM range 21.2-36.2).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (over-predicts bust). MIN has WORST WR defense (#1, 25.2 PPG allowed). DET-MIN 48.5 total. Christmas Day spotlight game. Week 16: 12.0 pts moderate. Selecting BOOM mode for elite matchup. Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM, 25% BUST. XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (over-predicts bust). Week 16: 16.9 pts BOOM. Carr connection improving late season. TEN vs NO (39.5 total - lower). Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 5.5 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE, 22% BOOM. XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust. LAR @ ATL. Falcons allow 28 TDs (tied-most). LAR -8.5 favorites = likely positive game script. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 17.2 17.0 MODERATE 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 21.1 18.0 MODERATE 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 13.2 14.0 BOOM 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 8.9 8.0 MODERATE 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 22.3 18.5 MODERATE 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 8.4 8.0 MODERATE 13% 28% 59% LOW
Dallas Goedert TE PHI 10.8 10.0 MODERATE 11% 34% 55% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.5 12.0 MODERATE 9% 48% 43% LOW
Quinshon Judkins RB CLE 0.0 0.0 BUST 9% 26% 64% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

Dallas Goedert: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 55%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Quinshon Judkins: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT

#1 Harrison Mevis (K, LAC)
vs vs HOU (Average)
ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT DROP: Jayden Reed (Love OUT tanks value)

Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers project similarly but Mevis trending up.

Week 17: Chargers offense efficient, should get FG opportunities vs HOU

#2 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)
vs vs LAR (Good (LAR allows solid points to QBs))
ESPN: 13.9 Trend: HOT DROP: Jordan Love

If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.

Week 17: Good floor QB with rushing upside

#3 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
vs vs DAL (Elite)
ESPN: 9.1 Trend: HOT DROP: Rashee Rice (IR - useless)

Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.

Week 17: LAC passing game efficient, Johnston emerging

#4 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
vs vs BAL (Average)
ESPN: 10.4 Trend: HOT DROP: Devin Singletary

If Juwan Johnson concerns you, Henry is a solid TE2. Week 16: 15.5 pts. Consistent target share with Drake Maye developing.

Week 17: BAL allows middle-of-pack to TEs

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)
69% BUST in MC, fading role with Johnston emerging
Garrett Wilson (WR)
Jets offense dysfunction, 0.0 pts Week 16
Jayden Daniels (QB)
OUT for Week 17
Cooper Kupp (WR)
On Seahawks now, 46% BUST, inconsistent

📋 Quick Summary

  • ADD Harrison Mevis (K), DROP Jayden Reed - ceiling upgrade at kicker
  • DROP Rashee Rice - IR clog, add Quentin Johnston for upside
  • HOLD Jordan Love on bench - still has playoff value if healthy Week 18

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
DROP Rashee Rice WR
Boom%25%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV7.9
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,
Boom%24%
Bust%38%
EV7.6
BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)
ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,
Boom%20%
Bust%30%
EV8.5
BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 7.9 27% 24% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.6 24% 38% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.5 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 0.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 9.9 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.5 18% 45% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 8.9 16% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.4 15% 55% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 12.0 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.1 14% 51% 0.0%
Rashid Shaheed WR 10.3 14% 53% 0.0%
Sam Darnold QB 15.5 13% 44% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Sam Darnold 15.5 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.7 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.5 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.6 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 7.6 BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.4 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 9.9 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 12.0 BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.3 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.6 BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 7.9 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.6 BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden 13.7 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 0.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 8.9 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.4 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Commanders D/ST 7.6 24% 38%
Bears D/ST 8.5 20% 30%
Dolphins D/ST 8.4 15% 55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-23 03:46

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+11.0
Expected Margin
130.5
My Team (LLM Proj)
120.0
Opponent (Proj)
30.1
Margin Std Dev
120.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -27.0 pts | Median: +12.1 pts | Ceiling: +49.7 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
RB Quinshon Judkins OUT 12.3 None available -

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 22.0 4.3-28.0 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 4.9-23.4 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 8.0 3.7-24.3 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 21.5 6.4-30.1 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 12.0 3.7-21.9 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 18.0 4.2-26.4 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 11.0 2.9-16.4 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 0.9-18.1 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 5.4-19.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 0.0 6.6-27.3 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 12.0 2.5-18.1 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 29% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 6.0 0.6-17.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 6.0 2.2-15.4 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 15.0 4.9-25.2 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 8.0 4.5-21.6 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 1.1-18.2 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 18.0 7.6-29.5 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 18.5 10.8-31.5 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB MED 17.0 6.3-27.3 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 4% James Cook III
Quinshon Judkins RB LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Quinshon Judkins
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 12.0 4.4-24.4 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 14.0 3.0-22.3 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% Jaylen Waddle
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 10.0 3.8-23.2 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Dallas Goedert
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 1.0-18.0 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 30% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 8.0 3.9-16.0 ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 21% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.2-32.3 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 11.9 3.7-23.1 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% Deebo Samuel
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.3 2.0-20.2 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Chimere Dike
Darnell Mooney WR HIGH 8.0 1.2-18.5 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 44% Darnell Mooney
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 10.1 3.2-18.1 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 21% Tyler Warren
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.4-21.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.8-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.1 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.1
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.8 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.8 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.46.0BUST55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR13.012.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Jordan LoveQB16.20.0BUST26.7%52.3%21.0%
Rashee RiceWR13.70.0BUST24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.410.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.111.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.912.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.315.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.322.0BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Bucky IrvingRB14.715.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR9.88.0BUST12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR14.218.0BOOM12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB8.96.0BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.921.5BOOM11.4%66.0%22.6%
Rams D/STD/ST5.58.0MODERATE10.6%29.7%59.7%
Devin SingletaryRB9.26.0BUST9.6%30.1%60.4%
Omarion HamptonRB13.08.0BUST9.0%33.3%57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Championship Analysis - Fresh Update (Dec 23, 2025)

KEY INJURY NEWS - VERIFIED

QB INJURIES: - Jordan Love (GB) - OUT (Concussion): Suffered helmet-to-helmet hit vs Bears Week 16. In concussion protocol. Backup Malik Willis also injured (shoulder). - Source: NFL.com - Fantasy Impact: Jayden Reed value TANKS - can be avoided if Love doesn't clear protocol

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL) - Questionable (Back Bruise): Exited Week 16 vs Patriots early. Day-to-day status.
  • Fantasy Impact: Ravens offense potentially hampered vs GB

WR INJURIES: - Rashee Rice (KC) - OUT (IR): In concussion protocol. Cannot play Week 17.

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK STARTERS

LOCKED-IN STARTERS (High Confidence): 1. Jacoby Brissett (QB) @ CIN - 51.5 game total (highest on slate), 74% MC BOOM 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) vs CAR - WR1 volume, 27% boom, Week 16 BOOM (23.6 pts) 3. Jameson Williams (WR) @ MIN - Christmas Day shootout, MIN allows 25.2 PPG to WRs (#1 worst) 4. Chargers D/ST vs HOU - 35.9% boom, 22.3% bust (excellent ratio)

SOLID STARTERS: 5. Bucky Irving (RB) vs MIA - TB bellcow, 59% MODERATE mode 6. Tyjae Spears (RB) @ NO - Week 16 boom (21.5 pts), NO allows 7th-most to RBs

FLEX DEBATE: McMillan vs MHJ - McMillan (CAR vs SEA): Now on Carolina, facing tough SEA secondary. 49% bust, 37% moderate. Projection: 15.0 pts. - MHJ (ARI @ CIN): 42.3% XGB boom (HIGHEST on roster!), but heel concern + ARI eliminated. Projection: 12.0 pts. - Championship calculus: MHJ has higher ceiling (42% boom), but McMillan floor is better.

WAIVER PRIORITY MOVES

  1. DROP Jayden Reed - Love OUT destroys his value. Only 10% boom with Willis.
  2. DROP Rashee Rice (IR) - Dead weight.
  3. Consider Sam Darnold as Love backup if he clears waivers.

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jacoby Brissett

Negative Buzz: Jordan Love, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed (without Love)

Mixed Buzz: Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel), Tetairoa McMillan (trade to CAR)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

No Debates Yet

Run /debate "Your question" to start a Crystal Society debate.

Examples:

  • "Should I start Player A over Player B?"
  • "Is this FA worth picking up?"
  • "What's the boom/bust outlook for Player X?"

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

10.5
Our Team MAE
17 players
11.7
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 10.9
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.9 21.5 0.0 -21.5
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 22.3 18.5 0.0 -18.5
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 14.2 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 21.1 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Opponent RB James Cook III 17.2 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 13.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 13.0 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 12.5 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.1 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Opponent TE Dallas Goedert 10.8 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.5 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 9.8 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 8.9 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent K Cairo Santos 8.4 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 9.2 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.4 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 8.9 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 16.2 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 13.7 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Quinshon Judkins 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 16.2 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 6.9 pts
Median (50th) 15.9 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.1 pts
90th percentile 23.4 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 21.5 pts
ESPN 21.9 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 17.9 pts
90th percentile 30.1 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.1 pts
90th percentile 24.7 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 13.0 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 21.6 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 13.7 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 13.0 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 19.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 16.7 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 14.2 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.2 pts
90th percentile 26.2 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 5.5 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 9.2 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.3 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.6 pts
Median (50th) 18.6 pts
90th percentile 28.2 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 6.4 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.8 pts
90th percentile 15.4 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 9.8 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM 18.5 pts
ESPN 22.3 pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 10.8 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 31.0 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.6 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 12.5 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.6 pts
90th percentile 24.7 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 11.5 pts
90th percentile 22.4 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 21.1 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 7.6 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 29.8 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Dallas Goedert (TE)
Dallas Goedert distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 10.8 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.7 pts
90th percentile 23.3 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 17.8 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Quinshon Judkins (RB)
Quinshon Judkins distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.6 pts
90th percentile 22.2 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 16.4 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM