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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 22.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | NO | 9.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.9 | 21.5 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 14.2 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.1 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 13.0 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.4 | 6.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT
Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers pr...
If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.
Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.
⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels, Cooper Kupp
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Championship week matchup against #1 seed Kitty's Piggy Skins. Jordan Love (OUT) and Rashee Rice (IR) create lineup challenges, but Jacoby Brissett @ Cincinnati (51.5 game total) provides elite QB replacement. Jameson Williams faces the worst WR defense (MIN) on Christmas Day. Key FLEX debate between McMillan (safer floor) and MHJ (42.3% boom ceiling). Chargers D/ST boom/bust ratio (1.6x) makes them the optimal championship DST. Win probability: 55% with 10.5 point expected margin.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 14.2 | 18.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 21.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.4 | 6.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 9.2 | 6.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 8.9 | 6.0 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 16.2 | --- |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.5 | 8.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 12.3 | 15.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 12.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 13.7 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | 21.1 | 18.0 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | 18.5 |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | RB/WR/TE | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | 8.0 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.9 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Darnell Mooney (bench) | WR | BE | 5.9 | --- |
| Deebo Samuel (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 18.7 | --- |
| Tyler Warren (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical pattern shows high ceiling). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (model underestimates). CIN allows 5th-most fantasy points to QBs (18.9 PPG). 51.5 game total is HIGHEST of the week. With MHJ and McMillan as weapons in shootout conditions, selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-29).
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (over-predicts bust). TB bellcow vs MIA (#15 vs RB). Week 16: 7.1 pts underperformed but solid usage. Game total 46.5 supports scoring. Selecting MODERATE mode. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE, 25% BUST. XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Week 16 BOOMED with 21.5 pts. NO allows 7th-most to RBs. Haskins out elevated role. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 21.5 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust. SEA WR1 vs CAR (#11 vs WR). Week 16: 23.6 pts BOOM. Consistent target share. Selecting BOOM mode. Projection: 21.5 pts (within BOOM range 21.2-36.2).
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust. Heel injury concern. ARI eliminated from playoffs. CIN matchup is good but snap count uncertain. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-16).
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (over-predicts bust). MIN has WORST WR defense (#1, 25.2 PPG allowed). DET-MIN 48.5 total. Christmas Day spotlight game. Week 16: 12.0 pts moderate. Selecting BOOM mode for elite matchup. Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE, 30% BOOM, 25% BUST. XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (over-predicts bust). Week 16: 16.9 pts BOOM. Carr connection improving late season. TEN vs NO (39.5 total - lower). Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: CONFIRMED OUT with concussion (source: NFL.com). Cannot play Week 17. Backup Malik Willis also injured. Set to 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 15.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE, 14% BOOM. XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust. ARI @ CIN (51.5 total). Rookie WR with Brissett chemistry. Week 16: 19.3 pts BOOM. Selecting upper-MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: CONFIRMED OUT on IR (LCL surgery, source: ESPN). Season-ending. Cannot play Week 17. Set to 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58%
Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 32% BUST. XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust. HOU has #1 RB defense (15.0 PPG allowed). Tough matchup. Selecting BUST mode. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 1.4-8.9).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 5.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE, 22% BOOM. XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust. LAR @ ATL. Falcons allow 28 TDs (tied-most). LAR -8.5 favorites = likely positive game script. Selecting MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 61% BUST. XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust. NYG vs LV neutral but inconsistent. Bench depth only. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range -1.0-6.5).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 70% BUST, 27% MODERATE. XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust. Rib injury Week 16. Chiefs decimated (-11.5 dogs to DEN). Limited value in playoff week. Selecting BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 1-10).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 66% MODERATE, 24% BUST. XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust. Jordan Love OUT with concussion. Malik Willis severely limits Reed. Was a solid play with Love but now BUST risk. Projection: 8.0 pts (within BUST range 3-10).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 21.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 14.0 | BOOM | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 18.5 | MODERATE | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 10.8 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 11% | 34% | 55% | LOW |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.5 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 9% | 26% | 64% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
Dallas Goedert: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 55%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Quinshon Judkins: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Championship Finals Week 17 - maximize ceiling, address Jordan Love OUT
Myers is solid but Mevis has been hot (30% boom in MC). With Reed's value tanked due to Love OUT, can upgrade kicker for ceiling play. Both kickers project similarly but Mevis trending up.
Week 17: Chargers offense efficient, should get FG opportunities vs HOU
If Brissett disappoints, Darnold is a solid backup option. SEA offense clicking. However, Brissett @ CIN (51.5 total) is still the better play.
Week 17: Good floor QB with rushing upside
Johnston has been on fire (20.4 pts Week 16). DAL matchup is excellent. Can replace Rice's IR roster clog.
Week 17: LAC passing game efficient, Johnston emerging
If Juwan Johnson concerns you, Henry is a solid TE2. Week 16: 15.5 pts. Consistent target share with Drake Maye developing.
Week 17: BAL allows middle-of-pack to TEs
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 7.9 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.6 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 9.9 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.5 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 15% | 55% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 12.0 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.1 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 10.3 | 14% | 53% | 0.0% | |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.5 | 13% | 44% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.5 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.7 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.5 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.6 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.6 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9.9 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 12.0 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.3 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.6 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7.9 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.6 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.7 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.4 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders D/ST | 7.6 | 24% | 38% | |
| Bears D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.4 | 15% | 55% |
Win Probability
Floor: -27.0 pts | Median: +12.1 pts | Ceiling: +49.7 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Quinshon Judkins | OUT | 12.3 | None available | - |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 22.0 | 4.3-28.0 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.9-23.4 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.7-24.3 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 21.5 | 6.4-30.1 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.7-21.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 4.2-26.4 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.9-16.4 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.9-18.1 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.4-19.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 0.0 | 6.6-27.3 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 2.5-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.6-17.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.2-15.4 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.9-25.2 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.5-21.6 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.1-18.2 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 18.0 | 7.6-29.5 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 18.5 | 10.8-31.5 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 17.0 | 6.3-27.3 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.4-24.4 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.0-22.3 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.8-23.2 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.0-18.0 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.9-16.0 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 21% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.2-32.3 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.7-23.1 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.0-20.2 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.2-18.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 10.1 | 3.2-18.1 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.4-21.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.8-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.1 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.8 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.4 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.4 | 6.0 | BUST | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 13.0 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 16.2 | 0.0 | BUST | 26.7% | 52.3% | 21.0% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.7 | 0.0 | BUST | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.1 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 9.8 | 8.0 | BUST | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 14.2 | 18.0 | BOOM | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 6.0 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.9 | 21.5 | BOOM | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.5 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 10.6% | 29.7% | 59.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 9.2 | 6.0 | BUST | 9.6% | 30.1% | 60.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.0 | 8.0 | BUST | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
QB INJURIES: - Jordan Love (GB) - OUT (Concussion): Suffered helmet-to-helmet hit vs Bears Week 16. In concussion protocol. Backup Malik Willis also injured (shoulder). - Source: NFL.com - Fantasy Impact: Jayden Reed value TANKS - can be avoided if Love doesn't clear protocol
WR INJURIES: - Rashee Rice (KC) - OUT (IR): In concussion protocol. Cannot play Week 17.
LOCKED-IN STARTERS (High Confidence): 1. Jacoby Brissett (QB) @ CIN - 51.5 game total (highest on slate), 74% MC BOOM 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) vs CAR - WR1 volume, 27% boom, Week 16 BOOM (23.6 pts) 3. Jameson Williams (WR) @ MIN - Christmas Day shootout, MIN allows 25.2 PPG to WRs (#1 worst) 4. Chargers D/ST vs HOU - 35.9% boom, 22.3% bust (excellent ratio)
SOLID STARTERS: 5. Bucky Irving (RB) vs MIA - TB bellcow, 59% MODERATE mode 6. Tyjae Spears (RB) @ NO - Week 16 boom (21.5 pts), NO allows 7th-most to RBs
FLEX DEBATE: McMillan vs MHJ - McMillan (CAR vs SEA): Now on Carolina, facing tough SEA secondary. 49% bust, 37% moderate. Projection: 15.0 pts. - MHJ (ARI @ CIN): 42.3% XGB boom (HIGHEST on roster!), but heel concern + ARI eliminated. Projection: 12.0 pts. - Championship calculus: MHJ has higher ceiling (42% boom), but McMillan floor is better.
Positive Buzz: Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jacoby Brissett
Negative Buzz: Jordan Love, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed (without Love)
Mixed Buzz: Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel), Tetairoa McMillan (trade to CAR)
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.9 | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 14.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 21.1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 13.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dallas Goedert | 10.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 9.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 9.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 16.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Quinshon Judkins | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.